Tuesday, April 09, 2013

Analysis List

Over last few days, thoughts have changed, and I've come back to "analysis mode". Few discussions lead to the conclusion that just reading doesn't work - it works, but doesn't help you tame your emotions and biases.

Hence, now that I'm beginning to resume a regular "study plan", I plan to add a regular analysis work assignments as well to make it more lively and practical. Hence, here's my shortlisted stocks that I want to analyze in next few weeks. This list also includes stocks I already own - with the intent to re-allocate funds by selling off "weakest' holdings and buying better ones - only after a detailed analysis and "patience test of 2 weeks". So, here's the list, in order of my interest:

1. Amara Raja Batteries: I wrote about it earlier on the blog, and have always found it interesting, but need to justify whether it is really expensive or not. This is where I'll learn about Charlie Munger's principles and try to apply to AMARARAJA...

2. MCX: Again, similar to AMARARAJA, I like the story, it is beaten down recently and available around all time low, and below IPO price, but need to do a thorough analysis if the price is good enough to justify buying...

3. CROMPGREAV and BHEL: Top holdings in my portfolio, and still beaten down and around multi-year lows. Need to analyze if it makes sense to add more capital into these names.

4. MOIL: I like the story, and it has not moves anywhere - keeps oscillating...I stand at minor losses, but need to perform a reality check - while Manganese ore prices will increase, can I really bank upon it and hold on to MOIL? Do I understand this company and industry good enough - or should I move funds across, to say SAIL to benefit directly when steel prices rise, or just exit commodity stocks altogether...

5. BHARTIARTL: Again, like the "long term" story, but could it be too early to enter? Can it fall in price further due to mid term concerns? Need a reality check again...whether to exit or keep accumulating for long term...

6. Piramal Enterprises: They've decided to sell stake in Vodafone - on track with what they said when they bought it - but what do they do with the cash? Are they eyeing some big acquisition? Probably something like Novartis India stake? Need to think...hold or book profits?

7. Infosys & CARERATINGS: Just perform regular review. Any better opportunity? Just try to find if it is one of the worst of my holdings today? Most likely not, but need an unbiased analysis...

8. MAZDA: Could it generate acceptable returns in long term, or makes sense to re-invest? Think...

9. Bajaj Auto & Tata Motors & TVS Motors: Auto companies? Think about them - are they available at deep discounts?

10. IL&FS Investments: Probably too complicated to understand, but can I learn from Charlie to deviate a bit from circle of competence and still make some great investment decisions? Similar to what holds true for MOIL...but need careful thoughts...

11. Goodricke Group, Kirloskar Pneumatic, Swaraj Engines, KPIT Cummins, NIIT Technologies, Persistent Systems, Solar Industries India: These are filtered based on some "healthy business" parameters, but no "story" yet for them, to analyze and see if any of them is a great deal, compared to rest of the stocks for which I have some story...

Finally, to remind myself that this blog is currently also my investment journal, and I must write down my thoughts as well action plan before I do anything - will try to be more regular and post even my thoughts as micro-posts as I resume the daily studying routine...

Let the journey begin...

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